Pierre Ferragu, an analyst at New Street Research, recently expressed his views on the disconnect between prediction markets and the press regarding the 2024 U.S. presidential elections
What Happened: On Thursday, Ferragu took to X to highlight the contrasting narratives between the media and Polymarket— a so-called decentralized prediction market that used cryptocurrency to offer bets.
He pointed out that while Polymarket gave former President Donald Trump a greater than 60% chance of winning, the press painted a different picture, suggesting a tight race with Vice President Kamala Harris winning the popular vote, even though the Electoral College might favor the GOP nominee.
I love dissonance. Polymarket: Trump has a >60% chance to win. The press: such a tight race, but Kamala wins the popular vote, even if the Electoral College favors Trump.
Make your bets…
— Pierre Ferragu (@p_ferragu) October 17, 2024
Why It Matters: Ferragu’s observations come in the wake of Trump’s widening lead over Harris on Polymarket, with the former President having a 62% possibility of winning at the time of writing.
Similarly, Kalshi, a federally-regulated betting platform, showed 57% odds in Trump’s favor, againt Harris’ 43%.
This was in sharp contrast to national poll surveys that gave Harris an edge.
A Marist College survey finds Harris leading Trump by five points, with 52% support to Trump’s 47%. Additionally, a Reuters/Ipsos poll gave Harris a 3-point lead over her Republican rival.
The divergence comes amid speculation of a coordinated betting activity on Polymarket, where a single entity is suspected to have placed a massive $26 million bet on Trump’s victory.
Polymarket, built on Ethereum’s ETH/USD Layer-2 protocol Polygon MATIC/USD, has gained prominence as one of the world’s top prediction markets for U.S. elections.
Image Via Shutterstock
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