The past week has been a whirlwind of economic debates, election predictions, and market uncertainties. From the public dispute between economist Justin Wolfers and Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance over inflation and grocery prices to warnings about the potential inflationary impact of a Republican sweep in the upcoming elections, the week was rife with speculation and anticipation.
Here’s a quick recap of the top stories.
Wolfers Challenges Vance’s Inflation Promise
Economist Justin Wolfers publicly disputed claims made by JD Vance regarding the impact of former President Donald Trump’s policies on inflation and grocery prices. Vance had asserted that Trump would lower grocery prices and secure the southern border, a claim Wolfers countered by stating that economists anticipate Trump’s plans would lead to a significant inflation increase.
Republican Sweep Could Increase Inflation, Economists Warn
As the U.S. heads into the elections on Nov. 5, economists warn that a Republican victory across the White House and Congress could significantly increase inflationary pressures. The impact, they say, would stem primarily from higher tariffs, a swelling budget deficit, and restricted immigration policies.
Trump Tariffs Could Slow Global Growth, Warns Temasek
Singapore’s state-owned investment firm Temasek cautioned that a potential re-election of former President Donald Trump could lead to a slowdown in global growth, impacting U.S. companies and financial markets. Rohit Sipahimalani, Chief Investment Officer at Temasek International, expressed concerns about the long-term impact of a Trump presidency on the global economy.
Fed Interest Rate Cuts Expected Amid Cooling Inflation
A 0.25% interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s Nov. 7 meeting is almost fully priced in by markets, with another similar cut likely in December as cooling inflation allows the Fed to gradually ease its policy stance. The latest inflation data from September showed a deceleration that aligns with the Fed’s 2% target.
Shock October Jobs Report Leaves Fed In ‘Tight Spot’
The October employment report released Friday morning showed the U.S. economy added only 12,000 jobs in October, well below estimates of 113,000. Economists are weighing in on the impact of the hurricanes on the report and the potential for future interest rate cuts. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, sees the Fed cutting rates at its next two meetings as economic conditions weaken.
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