There is one week left in the head-to-head matchup between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris to decide who will win the 2024 presidential election.
A leading market economist made his prediction on who will win the race.
What Happened: Economist and market strategist Christophe Barraud has been called “the world’s most accurate economist” over the years thanks to his accurate predictions on the U.S. economy.
Bloomberg labeled him the best economic forecaster for the U.S. economy in 11 of the past 12 years.
A 2024 election prediction from the Market Securities Monaco chief economist will likely be closely watched given Barraud’s accuracy.
“Looking at different metrics such as betting markets, polls, election modelers’ forecasts, financial markets, as of now, the most probable outcomes are: (1) #Trump victory (2) #GOP clean sweep,” Barraud tweeted, as reported by the New York Post.
Barraud’s prediction is that Trump will beat Harris in the head-to-head presidential race and the Republicans will also take full control of Congress, leading the House of Representatives and Senate.
Under this scenario, Barraud predicts the economy will get a short-term boost and gross domestic product could increase 2.1% to 2.3% in 2025, as reported by Business Insider. Â
Barraud said a Trump win and Congress split between the Republicans and Democrats could see the former president have his domestic economic agenda come under pressure and likely a higher focus on tariffs.
The long-term risk with a Trump win is a soaring deficit, Barraud said.
Barraud said the economy is likely to grow in the short term with either Trump or Harris leading the way.
Did You Know?
- Congress Is Making Huge Investments. Get Tips On What They Bought And Sold Ahead Of The 2024 Election With Our Easy-to-Use Tool
Why It’s Important: Election polls show a close race between Trump and Harris, while prediction markets and sportsbook betting odds are showing Trump as a heavier favorite.
The prediction by Barraud comes along with one by historian Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted nine of the past 10 presidential elections and is predicting Harris will win.
With Election Day one week away, investors and voters will soon learn who will take the White House in 2025 and who will have control of Congress.
DJT Price Action: The growing sentiment from prediction markets and experts like Barraud that Trump will win the election has been helping boost the price of Trump Media & Technology Group DJT. Co-founded by Trump, the media company often trades more volatile with Trump events and news cycles such as the 2024 presidential election.
DJT shares were up 8.76% to $51.51 on Tuesday with the company’s market capitalization soaring to more than $10 billion and passing a recent valuation placed on social media platform X. DJT stock is up 45% in the last five days and up over 220% in the last month.
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