Global Tensions To Drive Two-Year Copper Surplus, Study Group Warns

The global copper market could experience a notable surplus over the next two years, as analysts anticipate rising production and weakening demand owing to rising international trade tensions.

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) concluded its biannual meeting in Lisbon this week, revising the projections. It now expects a surplus of 289,000 metric tons in 2025, more than double the 138,000 surplus in 2024. For 2026, it forecasts a smaller but elevated surplus of 209,000 tons owing to concerns over the economic fallout from U.S. tariffs and reduced copper usage in key global markets.

ICSG attributes the widening surplus primarily to increasing mine and smelter output. Global copper mine production is forecast to grow by 2.3% next year to 23.5 million tons, with major contributions from the ramp-up of the Ivanhoe’s IVPAF Kamoa-Kakula Complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Rio Tinto’s RIO Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia, and the new Malmyz project in Russia.

In 2026, ICSG expects mine supply to grow by a further 2.5%, bolstered by new or expanded capacity in China, Chile, and Zambia and a recovery in Indonesian output. A wave of smaller operations in countries like Iran, Brazil, Eritrea, Greece, and Angola will also contribute.

The Group anticipates refined copper output will increase by 2.9% in 2025, driven by smelting expansions in China and new capacity in India, Indonesia, and the DRC.

However, 2026 could see a contraction of 1.5% in refined output due to tighter concentrate availability, particularly for primary electrorefining. Secondary refined production, which could grow by 6.4%, will partially offset that decline, as countries invest in recycling capacity to reduce dependency on mined copper.

ICSG also downgraded its copper usage growth forecasts, citing weaker global economic prospects exacerbated by trade policy uncertainty. Refined copper usage is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2025, down from a previous forecast of 2.7%, and slow further to 1.8% in 2026.

China, the world’s largest copper consumer, is forecast to see demand growth fall from 2% this year to just 0.8% next year. Other major markets, including Europe, Japan, and the United States, are expected to remain subdued, leaving broader Asia as the main driver.

While structural trends such as energy transition technology and digital infrastructure support the long-term demand for copper, the ICSG believes that current trade disruptions dampen near-term consumption.

Copper inventories on global exchanges rose by 25% in the first quarter of 2025, primarily due to a surge in holdings on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, further reinforcing the oversupply trend.

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