Turkey’s bid to join BRICS could have ramifications reverberating across a European Union (EU) already troubled by geopolitical and energy-supply concerns.
Turkey will attend the BRICS summit in the Russian city of Kazan from October 22-24. Ankara will likely be asked to join the bloc, strengthening its collective influence over global energy policy.
BRICS already accounts for 41% of global oil production after Iran and the United Arab Emirates joined earlier this year and 32% of global natural gas. It comprises around 28% of global economic production and roughly 45% of the globe’s population.
Joining BRICS, Turkey could help the group develop its own separate global energy market.
Source: BCG, BRICS oil and gas production, imports, 2022
Russia, a key player within BRICS, could leverage this shift to consolidate its energy dominance. This would complicate Europe’s access to diversified energy sources, an objective of the bloc.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine demonstrated the exposure Europe has to geopolitical instability. The tensions between Iran and Israel further exacerbated that.
Turkey Exports Critical For EU Energy
Europe’s reliance on stable imports could face further challenges if Ankara prioritizes BRICS-related energy strategies over traditional Western alliances.
Turkey is a conduit for oil and gas from Russia and the Middle East to Europe, positioning it as a critical player in global energy markets.
Source: Intellinews, Turkey oil and natural gas pipelines, 2021
The EU imported 5.16 million tonnes of oil products from Turkey from February 2023 to 2024, according to a CREA and the Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD) report.
Turkey signed an agreement with the major French energy company TotalEnergies (NYSE: TTE) on September 18, expanding its surplus gas by 25 billion cubic meters (bcm) and positioning itself as an energy hub to Europe.
“We can supply to European markets, particularly to the ones in south-east Europe that are in need of gas,” Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said.
Stalled EU Accession Talks Improve BRICS Membership
Ankara’s pursuit of BRICS membership has been fueled by impatience regarding Turkey’s admittance into the EU.
If Turkey had joined the EU, “we wouldn’t have needed to explore alternatives,” Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on September 19.
It was granted official EU candidate “status” in 1999, with entry negotiations beginning in 2005.
However, political instability, concerns over human rights abuses, and unease over matters in Cyprus have stalled Turkey’s accession to Europe.
Turkey, though, has made significant strides in the last decades to deepen its relations with the West. It joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as a bulwark against Soviet expansionism in 1952.
Source: DOD, NATO military presence in Turkey, 2024 update
Turkey May Be Risking Its NATO Membership
But President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s tilt towards BRICS could threaten Turkey’s alliances in NATO.
Erdogan wants to “play off the West against Russia, the West against China,” Brookings Institute’s Asli Aydintasbas told France 24.
“President Erdogan has pushed his geopolitical balancing act too far, testing the waters and going a bit overboard,” Aydintasbas said.
Turkey remains the only NATO member to refrain from imposing any sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.
The Trump administration placed sanctions on Ankara in 2020 after it agreed to buy Russia’s S-400 missile system. The mobile surface-to-air missile system posed a risk to the NATO alliance as well as the F-35.
Former French Ambassador to Syria, Michel Duclos, said he viewed Erdogan’s actions as “a bit of a contradiction with being an ally in NATO.”
War Tensions Push Turkey To Join BRICS
Turkey’s membership in BRICS could also further move Ankara outside of European influence. The relationship has deteriorated since last year in response to Israel’s military operations in Gaza.
Erdogan has criticized Israel’s military response to Hamas’s terror attack on October 7 last year. He has refused to condemn the terror organization for its role in initiating the conflict.
Erdogan has also worked to position himself as a leading figure in the wider Muslim world. Earlier this month, he cited an “alliance of Islamic countries” as “the only step that will stop Israeli arrogance, Israeli banditry, and Israeli state terrorism.”
But the Turkish president played down Western concerns. Turkey can become an “effective country if it improves its relations with the East and the West,” he said.
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