The S&P 500 index created records in 2024 but failed to rally over the last four days of 2024. However historical data shows that the index delivers positive returns over the next few days when it falls for at least three days during the year-end.
What Happened: With 57 all-time highs and over 20% year-to-date returns for two consecutive years, the S&P 500 achieved several milestones over the last year. It also rose 53.2% in two years, recording the biggest two-year jump since 1997-1998.
The S&P 500 index witnessed its longest losing year-end streak of four days, the most since 1966 which saw five days of fall. However, the first month of 1967 saw 7.82% returns following the decline.
With a red day today, the S&P 500 would be down 4 days in a row to end the year.
That would be the longest losing streak to end any year since 1966 (that year had 5). Hmmm.
Stocks did gain 20% in 1967 though 😊
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) December 31, 2024
According to an X post by Ryan Detrick, the chief market strategist at Carson Research, and the consecutive data shared by SubuTrade, the index has had a 6.24% average return over the next month after closing lower on the last three days of the year.
Interesting stat via @RyanDetrick:
If the S&P 500 closes lower today, it’ll be down 4 days in a row to end the year: no year-end rally this time
But here’s a silver lining: In similar cases over the past 100 years, the S&P rallied in the following month
Happy New Year! 🎉 pic.twitter.com/UnhCLzlLxx
— SubuTrade (@subutrade) December 31, 2024
Why It Matters: The U.S. stock market has achieved a staggering valuation, reaching a record high of nearly $63.8 trillion. This remarkable growth signifies a doubling of the market capitalization within a mere 4.5 years, demonstrating an impressive trajectory.
According to the data shared by The Kobeissi Letter, in an X post, the current year alone has witnessed a substantial surge, with the market adding over $10 trillion to its value. To underscore this magnitude, the combined market capitalization of China, Hong Kong, and Europe is approximately 50% lower than that of the U.S. Moreover, the collective market cap of the ‘magnificent seven’ tech giants surpasses the entire European market, highlighting their significant influence on global stock markets.
Standout annual performance was seen in Bitcoin BTC/USD, U.S. stocks, and Gold in 2024, whereas Oil and U.S. bonds underperformed, delivering essentially flat returns for the year.
The usual monthly table of returns for major assets/asset classes which, this time around, covers the full year 2024.
Most delivered strong returns, with standout performances by Bitcoin (+120% after a 153% gain in 2023), US stocks (S&P 500 up 20% for the second consecutive… pic.twitter.com/XHb5pAzmBq— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) December 31, 2024
In 2024, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY advanced by 24%, and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF QQQ rose by 26.99%, according to Benzinga Pro data.
The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust DIA was up 12.84% and the iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM returned 10.75% in the same period.
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