Tesla Q4 Deliveries Expected To Set New Records But Not Enough To Avoid Yearly Sales Decline, Says Researcher

Tesla Inc.’s TSLA sales in China and worldwide will likely set new records in the last quarter but not enough to avoid a decline in full-year sales, according to researcher Troy Teslike.

What Happened: Tesla has to deliver at least 514,926 in the last quarter if it is to beat its 2023 delivery number of nearly 1.81 million.

According to Teslike, both China and global sales are expected to set new records in the fourth quarter. Tesla’s highest quarterly delivery number to date was in the last quarter of 2023 when the company delivered 484,507 vehicles worldwide.

“This quarter should be higher than that. Unfortunately, that’s not enough to avoid a decline in total yearly sales,” Teslike said. According to the researcher, Tesla’s Model Y sales in the U.S. and sales in Europe are down this quarter as compared to the corresponding period last year.

Why It Matters: While Tesla followers might overlook the decline in yearly deliveries if the company managed to deliver over 500,000 EVs in Q4, it “looks difficult” based on current data, Teslike said.

Quarterly deliveries of below 500,000, however, would be “disappointing,” he added.

Teslike also opined earlier this week that Cybertruck production will likely not be profitable in the fourth quarter given the company has begun selling the regular versions of the vehicle instead of the pricier Foundation series.

While the foundation series Cybertruck had a starting price of about $100,000, the regular series Cybertruck starts at about $80,000.

Cybertruck production achieved a positive gross margin for the first time in the third quarter.

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Photo courtesy: Tesla